2023年一季度A股归母净利润同比增速较2022年四季度改善，但受价格因素拖累影响，ROE水平延续回落趋势，销售净利率环比下降。上市板方面，主板与创业板盈利录得小幅正增长，科创板业绩下滑明显。大小市值方面，以沪深300为代表的大市值企业归母净利润同比增速企稳回升，以中证1000为代表的小盘股归母净利润增速同比负增长加剧。从产业链来看，上游盈利转弱，中游业绩承压，下游利润修复。行业表现方面，消费业绩占优，成长、金融分化，周期弱势。

1、全A盈利边际改善但非金融企业归母净利润同比维持负增，大盘股业绩优于中小盘股。累计口径下，2023Q1全A/全A（非金融石油石化）营收同比增速为3.82％/3.90％，归母净利润同比1.42％/-6.48％，与2022全年水平相比，2023Q1全A（非金融石油石化）归母净利润同比维持负增。2023年一季度调整后的主板/创业板/科创板归母净利润同比增速分别为-5.75％、1.14％、-46.82％，一季度主板和科创板归母净利润同比增速持续走弱，创业板相对占优。大小市值方面，以沪深300为代表的大市值企业归母净利润同比增速企稳回升，以中证1000为代表的小市值企业盈利负增长加剧。

2、ROE水平再度回落，企业一季度扩大资本开支的信心不足。2022Q4/2023Q1，全A（非金融石油石化）ROE（TTM）为8.15％/7.96％，整体盈利水平再度回落。杜邦三因子拆分来看，2022Q4/2023Q1销售净利率分别为4.63％/4.58％，边际下滑；资产周转率分别为61.4％/60.53％，有所下降；权益乘数为2.75/2.76，边际回升。费用方面，全A（非金融石油石化）销售、管理、财务费用占比均提升。资本开支方面，受民营企业信心不足的影响，一季度全A（非金融石油石化）总资产增速与在建工程增速均回落。

3、上游盈利转弱，中游业绩承压，下游利润修复。1）上游：全球资源品价格自去年四季度以来逐步回落，叠加去年一季度高基数的影响，今年一季度上游板块归母净利润同比增速同比转负，ROE水平触顶回落。2）中游：今年一季度，虽然上游成本压力有所缓和，但受价格因素的拖累以及国内有效需求偏弱的影响，中游板块业绩仍较承压，盈利能力仍待修复。3）下游：随着国内疫情结束后线下消费场景的恢复，一季度服务业消费强劲复苏，居民消费回暖带动下游板块盈利回升，但整体ROE水平还有待提升。

泛消费板块归母净利润同比增长最为显著，TMT与大金融板块业绩底部回升，制造板块中新能源相关行业归母净利润仍维持较高增长，传统周期板块归母净利润显著下行；具体行业方面，2023Q1社会服务、农林牧渔、非银金融、计算机、公用事业利润增速居前，钢铁、建筑材料、电子、基础化工、医药生物行业净利润同比增速显著回落。消费与金融行业盈利能力修复，农林牧渔、社会服务、非银金融、食品饮料等行业ROE（TTM）环比显著提升，TMT板块的传媒、计算机亦有所改善，基础化工、钢铁、建材等传统周期行业ROE水平继续回落。多数行业经营活动现金流占比回落，国防军工、计算机、建筑装饰等行业回落幅度居前。多数行业偿债能力小幅回升，食品饮料、煤炭、美容护理、非银金融、计算机行业速动比率环比回升幅度居前。

备注：本文盈利同比增速、净利润同比增速，均默认为归母净利润同比增速，“利润、业绩、盈利”等类似表述均指归母净利润，除标题或正文注明环比以外，大部分“增速”均指同比增速。

风险提示：统计模型存在缺陷、基于自我认知划分与市场的偏差、历史数据不能代表未来、流动性收紧超预期、经济失速下行、疫情超预期恶化。

本文源自券商研报精选

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