材料价格免费查询
摘要
6月9日,统计局公布5月物价数据:CPI同比上涨0.2%,预期0.3%,前值0.1%;PPI同比下降4.6%,预期降4.3%,前值降3.6%。
非食品拖累CPI低预期、食品端对CPI的压制步减弱
CPI低预期主因非食品端拖累、尤其是原油等部分原材料价格回落明显,压制CPI向上弹性。5月,CPI同比涨幅扩大0.1个百分点至0.2%、低于预期的0.3%。拆分来看,食品环比-0.2%、低于近年均值的0.3%,高基数下,前期拖累明显的鲜菜环比降幅明显收窄,猪肉环比降幅收窄幅度也较大、1.8个百分点;非食品环比转负至-0.1%、低于近年同期均值的0.1%,其中,原油链拖累依然明显、交通通信环比进一步回落至-0.6%。
![](https://p0.ssl.img.360kuai.com/t01ddb4914ef97d4745.jpg)
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非食品端除原材料价格回落拖累外,部分服务类价格增长有所放缓,或与部分地区疫情反复有关、也可能指向需求有待加强,后续还待进一步跟踪。5月,核心CPI同比回落0.1个百分点至0.6%,除部分耐用品拖累外,服务价格增长放缓也有影响,其中,CPI文教娱环比转负至-0.1%、近3年同期为0.13%;旅游分项价格也是类似,环比转负至-0.6%。服务涨价或与部分地区疫情反复等有关,例如,百度“发烧指数”5月以来明显回升。
![](https://p0.ssl.img.360kuai.com/t01d4115c91a8c57c54.jpg)
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伴随部分商品供给扰动的拖累减弱、及终端需求逐步修复等,CPI或已处于筑底回升通道。年初以来,蔬菜、原油链等高基数拖累、及猪肉等商品供给端扰动下,CPI同比表现相对较弱。伴随部分商品价格回落拖累放缓,及居民消费修复延续等,或带动CPI逐步回升。
![](https://p0.ssl.img.360kuai.com/t0159d9907a5f7c546a.jpg)
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常规跟踪:CPI温和上涨,生产资料拖累PPI低预期
CPI总体平稳,同比涨幅略有扩大。5月,CPI同比涨幅扩大0.1个百分点至0.2%,环比降幅扩大0.1个百分点至-0.2%。食品环比降幅收窄0.3个百分点至-0.7%,其中,鲜菜、猪肉和鲜果环比降幅分别收窄2.7、1.8和0.4个百分点至-3.4%、-2%和-0.3%;非食品环比由正转负至-0.1%,其中,交通通信、文教娱拖累明显,环比分别降幅扩大0.2个百分点至-0.6%,由正转负至-0.1%。
![](https://p0.ssl.img.360kuai.com/t0135ea819e7e8ec643.jpg)
![](https://p0.ssl.img.360kuai.com/t01e9d343f52146e865.jpg)
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PPI受生产资料拖累,生活资料价格虽有回落、降幅收窄。5月,PPI同比降幅扩大1个百分点至-4.6%,环比降幅扩大0.4个百分点至0.9%。大类环比中,生产资料降幅扩大0.6个百分点至-1.2%,其中,三大工业拖累均明显,采掘、原材料和加工工业降幅分别扩大1.4、0.7和0.5个百分点;生活资料环比延续回落至-0.2%、降幅收窄0.1个百分点,其中,耐用消费品、食品环比延续走弱,衣着环比由正转负,一般日用品环比转正为0.1%。
![](https://p0.ssl.img.360kuai.com/t018adbb457547b0dd7.jpg)
![](https://p0.ssl.img.360kuai.com/t01e6a9c01e7e319c45.jpg)
分行业来看,国内外工业品需求总体偏弱,原油链、黑色链等价格回落明显。5月,多数行业环比价格回落、上游原材料链条尤其明显。煤炭开采、黑色冶炼、黑色矿采环比降幅进一步扩大至-5.2%、-4.2%和-3.9%;石油加工、石油开采和化学原料环比延续回落,降幅分别扩大1、2.6和0.9个百分点;相关链条中下游制造业价格也有所回落,例如,非金属矿物制品、通信制造、汽车制造环比延续回落。
![](https://p0.ssl.img.360kuai.com/t01bdb76eecbc409b6c.jpg)
风险提示
1、猪价大幅反弹。
2、疫情反复。
+
报告信息
证券研究报告:《CPI缘何低预期?》
报告发布机构:国金证券股份有限公司
赵伟 杨飞 马洁莹
本文源自券商研报精选
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